讲座题目：Happiness Through the Wire: Measuring the Well-Being Impacts of Power Outages in Rural China（线缆两端的幸福：中国农村停电对幸福感的影响）

主 讲 人：张林  香港城市大学  教授

讲座时间：2025年05月22日09:00

讲座地点：学院366

讲座简介：

Climate change and aging infrastructure have heightened the vulnerability of rural electricity systems, yet the household-level impacts of power outages on subjective well-being (SWB) remain poorly understood. This study investigates the causal effect of power outages on SWB in rural China, leveraging a unique household survey dataset across eight provinces. To address potential endogeneity, we construct an instrumental variable based on annual county-level lightning density. Employing a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach, we find that each power outage reduces SWB by 0.3 points, equivalent to a 3.7% decline. The negative effect is more pronounced in households with high electricity consumption and in regions lacking photovoltaic (PV) industries. We explore the underlying mechanisms and show that outages disrupt indoor cooling during heatwaves, impair the functionality of medical equipment, and hinder caregiving for vulnerable populations. Using the Life Satisfaction Approach (LSA), we estimate the household’s willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid a one-hour outage, underscoring the economic value of reliable electricity access. Based on self-reported happiness, our study provides the first application of LSA to quantify welfare losses associated with power outages in rural areas, offering critical insights for policymakers conducting cost-benefit analyses of electricity infrastructure investment aimed at improving life satisfaction.

随着气候变化加剧、用电需求攀升以及电力基础设施老化，农村电力系统的稳定性面临严峻挑战。本研究基于中国八个省份的家庭调查数据，分析了停电对农村家庭主观幸福感的影响。为解决潜在的内生性问题，我们基于雷电密度构建工具变量，并采用两阶段最小二乘法进行实证分析。研究发现，每次停电会使家庭主观幸福感降低0.3，相当于3.7%的下降。这种负面影响在用电量较高的家庭以及光伏产业不发达的地区表现得更为显著。进一步的机制分析表明，停电会干扰高温期间室内制冷设备的运行，影响医疗设备的使用，以及妨碍对弱势群体的照料。此外，本研究首次基于生活满意度方法，估计了家庭为避免一小时停电的支付意愿，为政策制定者开展旨在提升居民幸福感的电力基础设施投资成本效益分析提供了重要参考和依据。

主讲人简介：

张林，香港城市大学教授，全球治理与创新研究院副院长，博士生导师。国际能源经济学会（IAEE）理事、美国国务院经济与可持续发展SUSI访问学者、香港旅游局国际会议大使、香港清洁能源研究院研究员，NSFC/RGC地区联合项目首席专家。曾任瑞士苏黎世联邦理工经济研究中心高级研究员，瑞士能源研究中心顾问研究员，瑞银国际社会经济学中心研究员。The Energy Journal主编，Energy policy特邀执行主编。张林教授长期聚焦于能源转型、气候变化、环境治理与经济可持续发展的理论与量化研究；在Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences（PNAS）、European Economic Review、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management、《经济研究》等国内外顶级学术期刊发表论文80余篇，成果获得联合国、欧盟、OECD等组织机构的政策报告引用。入选斯坦福全球前2%顶尖科学家等榜单。