讲座题目：Market Interdependence: Evidence from Firms’ Responses to Tax Increases（市场相互依存性：企业应对增税行为的实证研究）

主 讲 人：刘勇政 中国人民大学 吴玉章讲席教授

讲座时间：2025年05月16日14:30

讲座地点：学院210

讲座内容摘要：

This study examines how firms respond to export tax increases by adjusting sales across product and destination markets. We first built a multi-product multi-destination model to demonstrate how capacity-constrained firms translate negative tax shocks to specific product-destination markets into sales expansion to other product and destination markets. By exploiting a quasi-experimental export tax change setting and applying detailed firm and product-level trade data, we find strong evidence of this dual-dimensional market interdependence effect on Chinese exporters. Specifically, the results indicate that an increase in export tax for treated products of the firms is accompanied by significant increases in the firm’s export sales for the untreated products and total domestic sales. Further analysis demonstrates a decline in the marginal cost of production for treated firms in the post-treatment period, which affirms that production capacity constraints comprise the key mechanism for detecting market interdependence effects.

本研究探讨企业如何通过调整不同产品和目标市场的销售来应对出口关税上涨。首先构建一个多产品多目的地模型，用以说明产能受限企业如何将特定产品-目的地市场的负面税收冲击转化为对其他产品和目的地市场的销售扩张。通过利用准实验性出口关税变动情境，并运用详细的企业和产品层面贸易数据，我们发现了这种双维度市场 interdependence 效应对中国出口商的显著影响。具体而言，结果显示企业受关税影响产品的出口税增加时，其未受关税影响产品的出口销售额和国内总销售额均出现显著增长。进一步分析表明，受关税影响企业在政策实施后的生产边际成本有所下降，这证实了产能约束是检测市场 interdependence 效应的关键机制。

主讲人学术简介：

刘勇政，中国人民大学吴玉章讲席教授、博士生导师。研究方向为政府间财政关系和税收政策分析，成果发表于《中国社会科学》《经济研究》, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Urban Economics等国内外一流学术期刊。主持国家社会科学基金重点项目、国家自然科学基金面上项目等科研项目。曾获中国留美经济学会“最佳青年经济学者奖”“邹至庄最佳论文奖”教育部高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖、全国优秀财政理论研究成果奖、北京市哲学社会科学优秀成果奖等。