讲座题目：A Political Economy of Mercantilism（重商主义的政治经济学分析）

主讲人：Prof. Paolo Epifani    英国诺丁汉大学（英国及中国校区）

讲座时间：2025年03月27日10:30

讲座地点：学院366

讲座内容摘要：

I study a general-equilibrium variation of the two-sector model of international trade with monopolistic competition in Venables (1987). I find that non-tariff barriers (and import protection more generally) harm both consumers and producers under balanced trade, a robust result that holds in the presence of country asymmetries, noninfinitesimal changes in trade policy, income effects on the demand for manufactures, etc. My model raises a puzzle, as it cannot help to rationalize protectionism. To address it, I allow for endogenous trade balances in the same setting. I find that Lerner symmetry breaks down, and that trade policy now benefits domestic producers when it leads to a trade surplus. Moreover, a quantitative exploration suggests that, independent of country characteristics and initial conditions, and of whether manufactures and nonmanufactures are substitutes or complements in consumption, the delocation effect of import protection is always opposite in sign and up to an order of magnitude bigger with endogenous trade balances than under balanced trade. My study therefore suggests that protectionism is more tempting when politically motivated governments can make a mercantilist use of it. A conclusion in line with the evidence showing that more protectionist countries tend to run larger trade surpluses on average.

本研究在Venables (1987）提出的垄断竞争型两部门国际贸易模型基础上构建了一般均衡框架下的扩展模型。研究发现：在贸易平衡条件下，非关税壁垒（及更广义的进口保护政策）将同时损害消费者与生产者福利。这一稳健结论在存在国家异质性、贸易政策非边际调整、制造业产品需求的收入效应等多种复杂情形下依然成立。但模型揭示了一个理论困惑：其无法为保护主义政策提供合理化解释。为此，本文引入内生贸易收支机制对该模型进行拓展。研究发现：此时勒纳对称性定理失效，且当贸易政策引致贸易顺差时，国内生产者将从中获益。定量分析进一步表明：无论国家特征与初始条件如何，无论制造业与非制造业产品在消费中是替代还是互补关系，相较于贸易平衡条件，内生贸易收支框架下进口保护的产业转移效应始终呈现符号相反且规模放大一个数量级的特征。因此，本文论证当政府试图推行重商主义政策时，保护主义的诱惑将显著增强。这一结论与实证证据高度吻合——保护主义倾向更强的国家往往平均而言维持着更大规模的贸易顺差。

主讲人学术简介：

Paolo Epifani is a Professor of International Economics at the University of Nottingham (UK & China) since 2014, and he is moving to Duke Kunshan University in August 2025. Previously, he served as the Head of the Nottingham Ningbo School of Economics (2014-17), as an Associate Professor of Economics at the Bocconi University Milan (2006-14) and as an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Parma (2001-06). His research focuses on the theory and empirics of international trade. A distinguishing feature of his approach is the use general equilibrium trade models to address important macroeconomic issues, such as trade imbalances, the political economy of trade and economic policies, migration, income inequality and economic geography, and the welfare effects of globalization more generally. Some of his research is published in leading economics journals, such as the Review of Economic Studies, the Review of Economics and Statistics, The Economic Journal, the Journal of International Economics, etc.

Paolo Epifani自2014年起任英国诺丁汉大学（英国及中国校区）国际经济学教授，并将于2025年8月转任杜克昆山大学教授。此前，他曾担任宁波诺丁汉大学经济学院院长（2014-2017年）、米兰博科尼大学经济学副教授（2006-2014年）及帕尔马大学经济学助理教授（2001-2006年）。研究聚焦国际贸易理论与实证研究，其研究方法的特色是运用一般均衡贸易模型探讨重大宏观经济问题，包括贸易收支失衡、贸易与经济政策的政治经济学、人口迁移、收入不平等与经济地理，以及更广泛意义上的全球化的福利效应。研究成果发表于Review of Economic Studies、Review of Economics and Statistics、Economic Journal、Journal of International Economics 等经济学顶刊。