主题：Stock market liberalization, investment banks, and analyst forecast quality: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

主讲人：王子田，澳大利亚昆士兰大学高级讲师

时间：12月12日（周四）下午15点

地点：A204

主办单位：武汉大学经济与管理学院会计系，武汉大学财务与会计研究所

主讲人简介：

王子田，2013年毕业于新加坡南洋理工大学，获会计学博士。2013-2018就职于上海财经大学，助理教授。2018至今，澳大利亚昆士兰大学，高级讲师（等同副教授）。论文发表于The Accounting Review, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Journal of the American Taxation Association.

讲座主要内容：

Capitalizing on a quasi-natural experiment in China where certain investment banks become investible to the global market across different periods, we explore the role that stock market liberalization plays in shaping local analysts’ incentives to provide high quality forecasts. In a staggered difference-in-differences research design to improve identification, we find that analysts affiliated with liberalized banks (i.e., pilot analysts) significantly reduce the errors and bias in their earnings forecasts from the pre-liberalization period to the post-liberalization period, relative to non-pilot analysts whose employers remain under strict capital controls during the same timeframe. Consistent with expectations, this result is concentrated among local investment banks that are smaller, have higher existing institutional ownership, and have stronger tournament incentives. Additionally, we identify three specific changes in analysts’ forecasting practices following market liberalization: pilot analysts (i) become more focused by reducing the size of their coverage portfolios; (ii) devote more effort to forecasting; and (iii) become subject to harsher career punishments for making deficient forecasts. Our analysis provides insight on the importance of financial globalization to the institutional environment of a country’s capital market.

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