讲座时间：11月4日(周一)上午9:00-12:00

讲座地点：A208

主讲人：

    王睿新，哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）经济管理学院助理教授（9:00-10:30）

    庄額嘉，武汉大学数理经济与数理金融系特聘研究员(10:30-12:00)

主办单位：武汉大学经济与管理学院世界经济系，主持人：郭汝飞

贸易与发展论坛第70期

讲座题目：Empowering the Elderly – the Effect of Pensions on Eldercare Mode, Brideprice, and Sex Ratio

讲座提要：The paper studies the impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) in China on the eldercare and other family arrangements. The elderly in rural China have low incomes and heavily rely on the eldercare provided by their sons. We analyze how the introduction of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) empowers the elderly in a difference-in-differences framework. Using the China Health and Longitudinal Study and Chinese Census data, we find that after the NRPS is introduced to the county, adult sons are more likely to migrate out of the parent’s resident county, but adult daughters are not; parents provide less brideprice to their sons when they get married, but the dowry provided to daughters is not affected; and the sex ratio is less biased. In addition, the amount of gift-giving to relatives and friends declines. These results imply that the elderly with pensions are less dependent on the informal care provided by their sons and their relatives and friends. Our findings also suggest that one reason for the son preference is the gain of eldercare provided by a married son and his wife and that is one reason for the son’s parents to pay the brideprice is to “purchase” the eldercare provided by the son couple.

主讲人简介：王睿新，现任哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）经济管理学院助理教授。先后获大连理工大学经济学学士(2008年)，香港科技大学经济学硕士(2009年)，荷兰蒂尔堡大学经济学博士（2015年）。在加入哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）之前，他曾任职香港浸会大学商学院，并曾在国际食物政策研究所（IFPRI）短期实习。王睿新博士的主要研究领域为发展经济学与公共经济学，主要研究兴趣集中于决定经济发展的（非正式）制度和政策因素。他的研究成果发表于Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization等期刊，其关于风险分担和礼金竞赛的论文曾获得第一届中国劳动经济学者论坛年会（2016）最佳论文奖。

贸易与发展论坛第71期

讲座题目：Risk Measures Recovered from Higher-Order Moments and Corresponding Trading Strategies

讲座提要：In this paper we consider estimation of the risk measure proposed by Aumann and Serrano (2008) under two common distribution assumptions: Normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) and Mixture of normals (MN), both depending on the first four moments. While this measure has an analytic form under NIG, it does not under MN. We thus demonstrate how this risk measures can be recovered from the first four moments using calibration when the distribution is MN. In our empirical study, we compute the NIG- and MN-based Aumann-Serrano measures using forward-looking moments and examine how higher-order moments may affect these measures. It is found that, the resulting Aumann-Serrano measures provide quite different risk signals during crisis periods, compared with the conventional measures that do not involve higher-order moments and the Aumann-Serrano measures that utilize incorrect information of higher-order moments. We also construct trading strategies from the NIG- and MN-based measures and show that they significantly outperform other strategies in terms of the annualized and accumulated returns.

主讲人简介：庄額嘉，武汉大学数理经济与数理金融系特聘研究员，研究领域为金融计量，风险管理，投资策略。有文章发表于Journal of Econometrics，Insurance: Mathematics and Economics，经济论文丛刊等期刊。