7月31日，Nature子刊Humanities & Social Sciences Communications在线发表了我院游士兵教授研究团队关于新冠肺炎疫情经济学评估的学术论文“Assessment of Monthly Economic Losses in Wuhan under the Lockdown against COVID-19”。武汉大学为第一署名单位，游士兵教授为第一作者兼通讯作者，山西大学宋海涛副教授、加拿大Wilfrid Laurier University Yongzeng Lai教授为共同通讯作者。游士兵教授的博士、硕士研究生为主要研究成员。

论文以武汉因新冠肺炎疫情“封城”为研究背景，运用动力学模型、健康负担评估的分区模型、投入产出模型等方法，评估了武汉“封城”一个月的经济损失；从以人为本的角度出发，通过对健康损失和行业经济损失的评估，揭示了“封城”措施与经济社会发展之间的相互作用；充分展现了虽然武汉市“封城”给武汉市及千万武汉人民造成了巨大的经济和精神损失，但因为“封城”措施的实施，至少避免了18万人被感染，挽救了约2万人生命，减少了至少300亿元的医疗费用。论文回答了“英雄的武汉人民”的精神价值，分析了武汉市“封城”措施的社会效益。

Abstract

With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, aggressive countermeasures have been taken, including the implementation of the unprecedented lockdown of the city, which will necessarily cause huge economic losses for the city of Wuhan. In this paper, we attempt to uncover the interactions between epidemic prevention and control measures and economic-social development by estimating the health loss and meso-economic loss from a human-oriented perspective. We implemented a compartmental model for the transmission dynamics and health burden assessment to evaluate the health losses, then estimated the direct and indirect economic losses of industries using the Input-Output model. Based on these estimates, the first monthly health losses and meso-economic losses caused by the lockdown was assessed. The overall policy effect of the lockdown policy in Wuhan was also investigated. The health loss and meso-economic losses are used to evaluate the health burden and loss of residents’ mental health, the direct economic loss of several worst-hit industries, and the indirect economic loss of all industries, respectively. Our findings reveal that the health burden caused by this pandemic is estimated to be 4.4899 billion yuan (CNY), and the loss of residents’ mental health is evaluated to be 114.545 billion yuan, the direct economic losses in transport, logistics, and warehousing, postal service, food, and beverage service industries reach 21.6094 billion yuan, and the monthly indirect economic losses of all industries are 36.39661994 billion yuan caused by the lockdown. The total monthly economic losses during the lockdown reach 177.0413 billion yuan. However, the lockdown policy has been considered to reduce COVID-19 infections by >180 thousand, which saves about 20 thousand lives, as well as nearly 30 billion yuan on medical costs. Therefore, the lockdown policy in Wuhan has obvious long-term benefits on the society and the total economic losses will be at a controllable level if effective measures are taken to combat COVID-19.

论文链接地址：

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00545-4