Abstract：This paper uses SVAR model to decompose the different monetary policy instruments into the predictable and unpredictable composition, and measure the time lag of output and inflation. The result shows that, the time lag of unpredictable monetary policy is shorter than unpredictable monetary policy, and the time lag of bank credit growth is the shortest by comparing to the money supply growth rate and interest rates. For this reason, the People's Bank of China should continue to implement the discretionary monetary policy, and control the gross of bank credit as well as maintain the balance of credit growth.

Key words： Decomposition of Monetary Policy Monetary Policy Instruments Time Lag of Monetary Policy

(原文刊于《统计研究》2013.12)