Abstract:

Vector Autoregression (VAR) has been a standard empirical tool used in macroeconomics and …nance. In this paper we discuss how to compare alternative VAR models after they are estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. In particular we apply a robust version of deviance information criterion (RDIC) recently developed in Li et al. (2014b) to determine the best candidate model. RDIC is a better information criterion than the widely used deviance information criterion (DIC) when latent variables are in-volved in candidate models. Empirical analysis using US data shows that the optimal model selected by RDIC can be di¤erent from that by DIC.

Keywords: Bayes factor, DIC; VAR models; Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

(原文刊于Advances in Econometrics 2014.3.3)